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Swamp Sunrise

July 4, 2008 5:00 AM MDT

Good morning.

Washington celebrates the Fourth of July like every other American city---with fireworks. The massive display of color and booming rockets---2,800 shells weighing 14,000 pounds---is held on the National Mall near the Washington Monument, preceded by a pop concert near the Capitol.

President Bush is touring Thomas Jefferson's Monticello home in Charlottesville, Va. and speaking at a naturalization ceremony.

The jobs report blame-go-round

July 3, 2008 4:07 PM MDT

by Matthew Hay Brown

Another jobs report: another opportunity for Republicans and Democrats to trade blame for the stumbling economy.

"It is highly disconcerting that the nation has again lost jobs for the sixth month in a row," Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said. "These job losses, coupled with the rising cost of living and a continuing housing crisis again highlight the failed economic policies of the Bush Administration."

House Minority Leader John Boehner called the report "the clearest evidence yet of the destructive impact the Democrats' economic policies are having on American jobs."

"Since taking the Majority 18 months ago, Democrats have refused to increase production of American energy, costing our economy jobs and sending gas prices soaring," the Ohio Republican said.

"They have saddled stressed-out taxpayers with the largest tax hike in American history, putting even more pressure on families and small businesses. And they've stood flat-footed while corrupt trial lawyers have run rampant with job-killing lawsuits against American employers, driving jobs overseas and appeasing their big donors by refusing to even hold hearings on evidence of industry-wide corruption in the trial lawyer business."

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi sees a very different story.

"Under Democratic leadership, Congress has passed extended unemployment benefits that will help 3.5 million Americans pay their bills as they look for a job, and provide much needed stimulus to our economy," the California Democrat said.

Bush to attend Beijing Olympic opener

July 3, 2008 3:24 PM MDT

by Frank James

In the time-honored Washington tradition of waiting until the last minute before a weekend or holiday to drop controversial news, the White House waited until the eve of the Independence Day holiday to announce that President Bush will attend the opening ceremonies of the Beijing Olympics.

Here's the press release where they buried the lead, not mentioning until the last sentence that the president will be in Beijing for the pageant-filled start of the games.

THE WHITE HOUSE
Office of the Press Secretary
________________________________________________________________

For Immediate Release July 3, 2008

STATEMENT BY THE PRESS SECRETARY

The President and Mrs. Bush will travel to the Republic of Korea, Kingdom of Thailand, and People's Republic of China in August.

In South Korea, President Bush and President Lee will discuss regional and global security issues as well as their commitment to getting their respective legislatures to ratify the U.S.-Korea free trade agreement, which will bring important benefits to workers, farmers, ranchers, and entrepreneurs in both the United States and Korea. The President will then travel to Thailand to celebrate 175 years of the U.S.-Thailand relationship and to discuss issues bilateral and regional issues with Prime Minister Samak. In China, the President looks forward to seeing President Hu and other senior Chinese leaders for discussions on a wide range of issues including the way ahead on North Korean denuclearization. The President and Mrs. Bush will attend the Opening Ceremonies of the Summer Olympic Games on August 8.

Obama may "refine" Iraq policy

July 3, 2008 3:00 PM MDT

by Katie Fretland and updated

Update: Obama held a second news conference to explain previous comments on his troop withdrawal plan for Iraq.

"Let me be as clear as I can be. I intend to end this war," Obama said. "My first day in office I will bring the Joint Chiefs of Staff in and I will give them a new mission, and that is to end this war responsibly, deliberately but decisively... "This is the same position I that had four months ago. It's the same position that I had eight months ago. It's the same position that I had 12 months ago."

Earlier today, Obama responded to questions about whether he is backing off of his timeline to withdraw troops in Iraq. He said he would "continue to refine" his policies.

"I've always said that the pace of withdrawal would be dictated by the safety and security of our troops and the need to maintain stability. That assessment has not changed," he told reporters in Fargo, N.D., according to news reports. "And when I go to Iraq and have a chance to talk to some of the commanders on the ground, I'm sure I'll have more information and will continue to refine my policies."

Obama's campaign website details his plans for Iraq if elected president. It states that Obama will remove one to two combat brigades each month and all combat brigades from Iraq within 16 months. It also states that Obama will not build permanent bases in Iraq, but keep some troops to protect the embassy and diplomats, according to the website.

The Republican National Commitee criticized the comments as a reversal of Obama's views.

"Iraq was the defining issue of Obama's primary campaign and now it is defining him as the self-interested, typical politician he really is," said RNC Spokesman Alex Conant. "Obama's Iraq problem undermines the central premise of his candidacy and shows he places politic expedience above everything and anything else."

Obama said the 16-month timeline was always premised on making sure the troops were safe.

"I said that based on the information that we had received from our commanders that one to two brigades a month could be pulled out safely from a logistical perspective," he said. "And my guiding approach continues to be that our troops are safe and that Iraq is stable.

"And I'm going to continue to gather information to find out whether those conditions still hold. My job is to make sure that the strategic issues that we face, not just in Iraq, but in Afghanistan, in Iran and Pakistan are all taken into account and dealt with in a way that enhances America's national security interests over the long-term."

Our colleagues at Top of the Ticket have more on this story here.

Boehner: Americans want to drill

July 3, 2008 1:42 PM MDT

by Matthew Hay Brown

Congress left Washington last week for the Fourth of July break, but gasoline prices take no holiday - and neither does the campaign by congressional Republican leaders to push for more domestic drilling.

House Republican Leader John A. Boehner is highlighting today's CNN/Opinion Research poll finding that 73 percent of Americans in favor of expanded offshore drilling for oil and natural gas in protected U.S. waters. The survey of 1,000 Americans from June 26 to 29 is the latest to show rising support among beleaguered consumers for increasing access to America's oil reserves.

"For decades, Democrats have locked up our nation's natural energy sources, and with $4.10 per gallon gasoline and $145 per barrel oil, American families and small businesses are literally paying the price. While the Democratic Majority refuses to schedule meaningful legislation to help reduce gasoline prices, the American people are saying 'enough is enough.' "

Democrats say such drilling would harm the environment while doing little to reduce prices at the pump. Forty-nine percent of poll respondents believe environmental protection should be given priority, even at the risk of curbing economic growth, while 44 percent said the government should focus on economic growth, even at the expense of the environment.

Carroll Muffett, deputy campaigns director at Greenpeace, called the choice "a false dichotomy."

"In truth, what is truly good for the environment is what is truly good for the economy, because a shift to better energy solutions would create jobs," Muffett told CNN.

McCain wrapping up Latin America trip

July 3, 2008 1:00 PM MDT

by Katie Fretland

Sen. John McCain is in Mexico's capital today to meet with President Felipe Calderon.

The presumptive Republican nominee for president planned to highlight immigration and trade issues during the meeting. First, he planned to visit the country's holiest site for Roman Catholics, the Basilica de Guadalupe in Mexico City.

This week during a trip to Colombia, McCain promoted free trade with Latin America. He voiced support for the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) between Mexico, Canada and the United States and a deal for free trade with Colombia.

During his trip, President Alvaro Uribe briefed McCain before the Colombian military liberated former Colombian presidential candidate Ingrid Betancourt and three U.S. military contractors who had been held by the FARC rebel group for years.

McCain also pressed Uribe to improve the country's human rights record. According to the New York-based Human Rights Watch, the country remains "mired in a brutal and long-running armed conflict involving left-wing guerrillas, paramilitary groups, and the Colombian military. Accountability for serious crimes is almost non-existent and the rule of law has yet to take hold in much of the country." The organization wrote McCain a letter highlighting these problems.

McCain pledged his support for human rights:

"I've been a supporter of human rights for my entire life and career," McCain said following the meeting with Uribe. "We have discussed this issue with President Uribe and will continue to urge progress in that direction. I believe progress is being made and that more progress needs to be made."

The McCain campaign's further ties to Colombia via his chief strategist were reported this week by the New York Times.

Since 1998, the lobbying firm headed until recently by Charlie Black, one of Mr. McCain's closest confidants, has earned more than $1.8 million representing the Occidental Petroleum Corporation, the leading foreign producer of gas and oil in Colombia.

Human rights groups have accused Occidental of complicity in violence against peasants thought to be symapathic to guerilla groups in the area of the pipelines, the Times reports. The company has denied those accusations.

Now for some good news

July 3, 2008 12:47 PM MDT

A new study says stocking up on this will enhance your staycation.

by James Oliphant

Your Swamp correspondent is like many Americans this long 4th of July weekend: home, embarking on his "staycation."

We can dress it up in new-age jargon all we like, but we know what it means: maybe hanging out by the pool, watching a parade, renting a few flicks. It's hard to make a staycation sexy. As the Byrds sang: "You ain't going nowhere." Maybe we can buy a new flavor of potato chip. That's about as exciting as it's going to get.

But there is some good news: A new study says watermelon can have the same effect on men as Viagra! Who knew, except perhaps the National Watermelon Promotion Board. So remember that at the market when you are buying those potato chips. (And don't forget to spit out the seeds.)

What about you, Swamp denizens? Staying home this weekend or hitting the road? About a half-million fewer drivers will be on the highways this holiday, AAA says, thanks to the high price of gas.

Speaking of good news, Time magazine has the temerity to tell us that there are positives to $4-a-gallon gas. Ten of them to be exact. High fuel costs, Time says, could slow the outsourcing of jobs, because that phenomenon was driven by cheap energy worldwide. Also, suburban sprawl could be reduced as people move closer to cities. And traffic will be lessened, resulting in fewer deadly accidents.

See the whole list here.

Meanwhile, we will kick back and embrace the staycation. It's a stay-at-home state of mind. See you at the barbecue pit. What time should we all come over? And would you mind if we just skipped the tofu dogs this year?

Bush close to Gitmo decision?

July 3, 2008 12:11 PM MDT

by James Oliphant

ABC News is reporting that President Bush may decide in the coming days whether to close or revamp the prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, that holds about 270 alleged terrorists.

Closing Gitmo has been advocated by Defense Secretary Robert Gates, among others, for months. But as ABC's Jan Crawford Greenburg reports, discussions among administration officials have intensified since the Supreme Court last month ruled that the detainees have a right to challenge their detention in federal court.

The court specifically held that because it considers the base at Guantanamo to be U.S territory--ignoring administration contentions otherwise--that the suspected terrorists were held in American custody, granting them some rights under the Constitution.

Soon after the court's ruling, a federal appeals court in Washington, D.C. ruled that the Pentagon had not proved its case for holding a Chinese Muslim detainee. The administration fears a wave of such rulings, largely because the evidence collected in support of the detentions -- either gathered on the battlefield or through interrogations-- isn't the kind of proof that suits a federal proceeding.

Reporting Obama's every move

July 3, 2008 10:45 AM MDT

by Katie Fretland

In the above video, CNN's Jeanne Moos explores the art of reporting on Barack Obama's every move.

Protective pool reporting, or the journalistic practice of a person or small group following the candidates pretty much everywhere, provides written reports for the rest of the press to use.

The importance of pool reporting is to have a journalist with a candidate all of the time, in case something happens, like an assassination attempt or illness. It also helps to have someone with a candidate in case a significant event happens somewhere else in the world, and it would be necessary to have a response from the candidate.

The reports can even include details like this: "8:32 P.M. MO and BO flirt. MO hits BO playfully multiple times in a row." (MO is Michelle Obama. BO is Barack Obama).

Or a mention of a "slammin" dress:

"7:48pm They arrive at the restaurant. Obama walks in a few feet ahead of Michelle who looks slammin' in a black cocktail dress with a severe slit down the back. Her hair was up."

Or this:

"Sen. Barack Obama and his wife Michelle left their house on Tuesday night to watch their eldest daughter Malia play soccer. The couple sauntered onto the athletic field at the University of Illinois at Chicago, carrying matching bags containing fold-up "Sports Authority" chairs. Obama was dressed in brown pants and a black polo shirt. Michelle wore Capri pants, a pink shirt and sneakers."

Or a personal favorite (note the Tony Rezko mention):

Bush expects new Walter Reed 'miracles'

July 3, 2008 10:30 AM MDT

By David Nitkin

For years, the name Walter Reed - an Army hospital opened in 1909 -- was synonymous with stellar medical care.

But that changed in February 2007, after The Washington Post published the results of a four-month investigation into care of rehabiliting and returning soldiers at the aging campus on Georgia Avenue in the District of Columbia.

The investigation found moldy rooms, lax supervision and a Byzantine administrative system that left soldiers and their families fumbling for basic items such as new uniforms. The poor conditions were most prevalent in the out-patient housing, not in the hospital itself, which remains well-regarded for its life-saving treatments.

Now a new Walter Reed is being built, on the campus of the National Naval Medical Center in Bethesda. The $970 million facility will consolidate treatment for all military branches at the Walter Reed National Military Medical Center.

Planning for the new facility was underway before the scandal broke, as part of the federal base realignment process.

Local officials in Montgomery County, Maryland, are concerned about the traffic from workers and visitors the expansion will generate, and are fighting for federal money for road improvements.

President Bush visited the Bethesda naval medical center today. Not for his annual physical, but to acknowledge the new construction. Bush - who appointed a blue-ribbon panel to examine veterans care after the Post stories - made no mention of Walter Reed's troubles today. Instead, he said he hoped the new hospital "will be the site of many miracles of healing."

"I love being with the healers and caregivers," Bush said before taking a gold-painted spade and flipping a ceremonial scoop of dirt. "Our success still relies on these anonymous heroes."

Economy's job losses meet expectations

July 3, 2008 10:27 AM MDT

by Frank James

It was a bad news, good news morning for economy watchers.

The bad news was that the economy shed 62,000 jobs in June, the sixth straight month in which employers cut their payrolls. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate came in at 5.5 percent, unchanged from the previous month.

The good news was that the numbers reported by the U.S. Labor Department were pretty much what economic analysts and Wall Street investors expected so the financial market's initial reaction was one of relief.

The overall job losses for the first half of the year amounted to 438,000, according to the Labor Department. What's really raising anxieties is that there's no sense that the economic blood-letting is nearing an end.

As the Associated Press reported:

Private analysts predict the economy will continue to shed jobs in the months ahead, pushing the unemployment rate higher.

"The economy is at risk of a hard landing," said Brian Bethune, economist at Global Insight.

Speculators: gas price 'scapegoat'?

July 3, 2008 10:00 AM MDT

by Jim Tankersley

Congress returns to work next week with an enormous national outcry to address: the rising cost of gasoline, which polls show has surged to the top of voters' minds.

The political parties in Washington are pushing very different proposals they promise will bring relief at the pump. Republicans want to expand domestic oil drilling, a plan many Democrats and other critics say wouldn't affect gas prices for years because of delays in bringing new supply out of the ground and to market.

Democrats are focused on a package of measures to crack down on what they call price-inflating abuse of the oil market, including price gouging and oil speculation. "Increasing evidence shows that the run-up in crude oil prices and gasoline is being driven by larger trader banks, pension and hedge funds," Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said last month. Speculation may have as much, if not more, to do with high gas prices than any Saudi Sheik."

An article in the July 7 issue of the New Yorker magazine rebuts Durbin - and, to a lesser extent, the Republicans - with a simple argument: that the real cause of soaring gas prices is too complicated for Congress to do much about this summer.

"The difficulty for Congress, of course, is that none of the problems that have driven up the price of oil lend themselves to a quick fix," the New Yorker's James Surowiecki concludes, "and most, like the boom in global demand and the inaccessibility of certain oil fields, aren't under our control at all... Our dependence on foreign oil, together with the fiscal fecklessness that has helped reduce the value of the dollar, means that there is no easy way out of where we are. But in an election year that's hardly a message that anyone in Washington is going to deliver."

Check out the full article here.

Will $1M keep Obama 'progressive'?

July 3, 2008 9:26 AM MDT

by Jim Tankersley

As the Swamp noted several times in recent weeks, Barack Obama has steered toward the political center after locking up the Democratic presidential nomination. Many liberal groups don't like it - and one is registering its displeasure by asking members to "use your money to ensure that Barack Obama lives up to his promise to deliver 'change we can believe in.'"

The idea: Create a $1 million pool of pledged contributions that Obama won't see until he returns to demonstrating "progressive leadership" on issues such as electronic wiretapping by the federal government.

The group, Democrats.com - "The aggressive progressives" - backs impeaching President Bush and Vice President Cheney for a variety of crimes against the Constitution and domestic and international law. It is raising money for left-leaning primary challengers to some of the more conservative Democrats in the House. In an e-mail to members today, President Bob Fertik urges them to appeal to Obama with a different sort of donation - a conditional one.

"Don't get me wrong: we fully support Obama and will do everything we can to elect him President," Fertik writes. "But will also do everything we can to protect the Constitution and hold Obama to his promise of real progressive change.

"And that's why we are launching our Obama Progressive Escrow Fund. We're asking you to put some of the money you plan to give Obama 'in escrow' until he demonstrates progressive leadership on the issues we care about, like warrantless wiretapping."

Then he adds: "We are absolutely not trying to hurt Obama - we'll give him our money at some point. We're just asking for a little R-E-S-P-E-C-T like Aretha Franklin sang about."

The strategy which raises a larger question in light of Obama's decision to forgo public financing and raise hundreds of millions of dollars himself for the general election: How much withheld money would it take to "hurt" Obama, financially, enough to get his attention?

Read on for the full e-mail:

McCain, Obama: Gamblin' men

July 3, 2008 8:48 AM MDT

by James Oliphant

A recent article in Time takes a look at the gaming habits of the presidential candidates--and what they say about their personalities. And it might not surprise you that John McCain is a thrill-seeker and Barack Obama a tactician.

According to the piece, McCain, a product of the high-flying culture of the Navy aviator, loves the action of the casino and favors craps, in which you literally hold your luck in your hand.

Enjoying craps opens up a window on a central thread constant in John's life," says John Weaver, McCain's former chief strategist, who followed him to many a casino. "Taking a chance, playing against the odds." Aides say McCain tends to play for a few thousand dollars at a time and avoids taking markers, or loans, from the casinos, which he has helped regulate in Congress. "He never, ever plays on the house," says Mark Salter, a McCain adviser. The goal, say several people familiar with his habit, is never financial. He loves the thrill of winning and the camaraderie at the table.

The piece says that aides have tried to keep McCain away from casinos during the campaign (there's that uneasy relationship with social conservatives, remember), convincing him not to hit the floor during a trip to Las Vegas last spring. Presidential candidates don't have the luxury of taking advantage of Sin City's favorite maxim: Nothing stays anywhere when you have a pack of reporters hounding you.

Obama leads among Hispanic voters

July 3, 2008 7:45 AM MDT

by Katie Fretland

Hispanic voters, many who favored Hillary Clinton during the Democratic primaries, are now strongly supporting Barack Obama over John McCain, Gallup reports.

A new poll shows registered Hispanic voters prefer Obama over McCain by 59 percent to 29 percent.

However, the smaller group of Hispanic voters who are Republican show more support for McCain. Hispanic voters with conservative views are about evenly divided between the two candidates.

Older Hispanics showed slightly more favor toward McCain, than younger Hispanic voters.

Gallup's Jeffrey M. Jones reports that McCain faces a struggle to attract the support of the Hispanic community given the "consistent and solid support" for Obama recently.

"Some political experts assumed Obama's struggle to attract widespread Hispanic support in the primaries would carry over into the general-election campaign against the Republican candidate." Jones reports. "But Hispanics have become a reliable Democratic voting bloc, and have so far shown little difficulty in transferring their loyalties from Clinton to Obama... Hispanic voters could be crucial in key swing states such as New Mexico, Colorado, and Florida."

The data is based on telephone interviews from March to June with 4,604 Hispanic registered voters, aged 18 and older.